Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
Justin Herbert has been among the worst QBs in football at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 1.00 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 22nd percentile.

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