Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
Justin Herbert's rushing efficiency (3.77 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (12th percentile among QBs).
Justin Herbert has been among the worst QBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 0.70 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 14th percentile.

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