Justin Herbert Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to be a more integral piece of his team's run game this week (11.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends project as the 5th-worst DE corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a giant 8.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 32.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Justin Herbert has run for quite a few less yards per game (9.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
Justin Herbert's ground effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating just 4.41 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.03 rate last season.

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