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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 253.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 235.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 253.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 10th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically prompt better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) since the start of last season.
  • Justin Herbert's 71.2% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates an impressive progression in his throwing precision over last year's 64.6% rate.
  • Justin Herbert's 8.95 adjusted yards-per-target this season reflects a significant gain in his throwing effectiveness over last season's 7.4% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
  • Since the start of last season, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has yielded the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing squads: a measly 4.4 YAC.

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