Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2025

Updated Jan 12, 2026 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 226.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 226.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
In registering a staggering 31.3 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert rates among the top quarterbacks in football (80th percentile) for this stat.
Justin Herbert profiles as one of the top passers in football this year, averaging an exceptional 210.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
The Patriots linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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