Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 27, 2025 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 206.5 (-115/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 217.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 206.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.
Justin Herbert has attempted 31.2 passes per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among QBs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.
As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.
This year, the imposing Houston Texans defense has allowed a measly 184.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the tough Texans defense has conceded the least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a mere 6.6 yards.
The Houston cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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