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Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 195.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 207.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 195.5 @ -115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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A throwing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.The projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.In registering a staggering 33.6 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert ranks among the top QBs in the NFL (83rd percentile) in this regard.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 63.0 total plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.The Los Angeles O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.This year, the imposing Chiefs defense has allowed a feeble 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-best in the NFL.As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
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