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Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 235.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 230.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.4% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.

The Chargers have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 60.0 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced run volume.

When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's group of safeties has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 9.5 points.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have only 121.8 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to throw 32.1 passes this week, on average: the 9th-fewest out of all QBs.

The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert Passing YardsPlayer Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13