Justin Herbert Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Passing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 244.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 240.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 244.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to throw 40.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 6th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 211.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Ravens defense this year.
The Ravens pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, surrendering 6.29 adjusted yards-per-target: the fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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