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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-132/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ +100.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 59.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • In registering a staggering 31.3 pass attempts per game this year, Justin Herbert rates among the top quarterbacks in football (80th percentile) for this stat.
  • This year, the porous Patriots defense has been torched for a whopping 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense called: the fewest among all games this week.
  • As it relates to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
  • The Patriots linebackers profile as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

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