reorder

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-104/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.2% pass rate.

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume.

Justin Herbert has attempted 31.2 passes per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 29.47 seconds per snap.

As it relates to pass protection (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the league this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest level in the league versus the Houston Texans defense this year (63.9% Adjusted Completion%).

The Houston cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

More Justin Herbert Player Props

Justin Herbert CompletionsPlayer Prop Week 17

Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 17