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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.7% pass rate.
  • The Chargers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Justin Herbert has attempted 34.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 87th percentile among QBs.
  • When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Philadelphia's safety corps has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chargers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
  • This year, the tough Eagles defense has yielded a puny 63.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the NFL.

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