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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Completions
Player Prop Week 11

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 65.0% pass rate.
  • The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a whopping 61.6 per game on average).
  • Justin Herbert has attempted 36.9 throws per game this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among QBs.
  • The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.8 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their typical game plan.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • The Chargers O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in football versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.8% Adjusted Completion%).

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