Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to attempt 39.9 passes this week, on average: the most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the Cowboys defense this year (62.2% Adjusted Completion%).
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Dallas's CB corps has been tremendous this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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