Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to throw 40.1 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in the league versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (67.5% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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