Justin Herbert Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Completions

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Herbert Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 38.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have incorporated play action on 28.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Los Angeles Chargers have risked going for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Cleveland Browns defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.