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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 9

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-159).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Chargers being an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • The Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
  • In this week's game, Justin Herbert is expected by the projections to earn the 8th-most carries out of all QBs with 5.0.
  • Justin Herbert has been a much bigger part of his offense's running game this season (16.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.4%).
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's unit has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 35.1% run rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to have only 126.4 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

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