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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a mere 28.14 seconds per play, the Los Angeles Chargers offense ranks as the 10th-fastest paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year.
  • The Colts linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chargers as the 4th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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