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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+116/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +116.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to garner 5.9 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this game (22.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.8% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Chargers as the 9th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 41.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Chargers are anticipated by the model to call just 63.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 11th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically prompt better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
  • The Broncos safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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