My Account Log Out
 
 
Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 19

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).
  • Justin Herbert has averaged 4.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the largest rates in the league among quarterbacks (88th percentile).
  • Justin Herbert has been much more involved in his team's rushing attack this year (17.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.4%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to run on 40.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, New England's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the league.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™