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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 16

Dallas Cowboys vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-147).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -147.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 60.5 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to notch 4.9 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs.
  • After taking on 11.4% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Justin Herbert has played a bigger part in the run game this season, currently making up 16.5%.
  • The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to run on 39.9% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 26.63 seconds per play) will have the 11th-slowest tempo on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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