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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 15

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-118/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 5th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.
  • The leading projections forecast Justin Herbert to accumulate 5.6 carries this week, on average: the 6th-most out of all quarterbacks.
  • After making up 11.4% of his offense's carries last year, Justin Herbert has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now accounting for 17.6%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A throwing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The leading projections forecast the Chargers as the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are predicted by the model to call just 63.0 total plays in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league this year with their run defense.

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