Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 28, 2024 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.
The model projects the Chargers to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Herbert has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this season (6.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (14.1%).

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