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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 1

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

At the moment, the 8th-most run-centric team in football (41.6% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.

Justin Herbert isn't afraid to call his own number, accounting for 14.1% of his team's rushing play calls last year, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may drop.

As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Las Vegas's unit has been exceptional last year, ranking as the best in football.

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