Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Our trusted projections expect Justin Herbert to total 4.0 carries in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
After taking on 9.7% of his offense's rushing play calls last season, Justin Herbert has had a larger role in the run game this season, currently making up 15.1%.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles grade out as the 8th-worst group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.

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