Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Herbert has been a more integral piece of his offense's running game this season (15.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (9.7%).
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Baltimore's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 36.3% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year.

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