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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Justin Fields Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -500 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -12.5-point underdogs.
  • This year, the deficient Patriots defense has been torched for a massive 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the formidable Patriots run defense has yielded a meager 0.30 touchdowns on the ground per game to the opposing side: the best rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.7 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • In this week's contest, Justin Fields is expected by the model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.0.
  • Comprising 18.8% of his team's red zone rushing play calls this year (90th percentile among QBs), Justin Fields's mobility makes him a dangerous threat in the run game near the goal line.
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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