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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

New York Jets vs Carolina Panthers

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-261/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -253 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 60.0% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-most pass-focused team in the NFL in this respect has been the New York Jets.

The Carolina Panthers defense has been gouged for the 10th-most passing TDs in football: 1.67 per game this year.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have just 123.8 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.

The leading projections forecast Justin Fields to attempt 29.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.

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