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Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+185/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL vs. the Cowboys defense this year (81.9% Adjusted Completion%).

This year, the poor Cowboys defense has surrendered a staggering 2.50 TDs through the air per game to opposing QBs: the biggest rate in the league.

The Cowboys linebackers grade out as the 4th-worst group of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Jets to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 52.7% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.

The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).

Our trusted projections expect Justin Fields to attempt 28.7 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.

More Justin Fields Player Props

Justin Fields TD PassesPlayer Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5