My Account Log Out
 
 
Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -12.5-point underdogs.
  • This year, the deficient Patriots defense has been torched for a massive 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-highest rate in the NFL.
  • This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has surrendered a whopping 1.80 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 9th-worst rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.7 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • In this week's contest, Justin Fields is expected by the model to total the 5th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.0.
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Justin Fields has been one of the bottom touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrible 0.67 per game while ranking in the 11th percentile.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™