Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 13, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-205/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 10th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Steelers this year (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Fields's 66.7% Adjusted Completion% this year illustrates an impressive improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year's 61.9% rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (75.6% Adjusted Completion%).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 9th-most passing TDs in football: 1.60 per game this year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 49.8% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Right now, the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (52.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In this week's contest, Justin Fields is forecasted by our trusted projection set to average the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 26.6.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Raiders, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.8 per game) this year.

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