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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 12

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-255).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The Bears have been the 9th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • Justin Fields has been among the leading touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 1.71 per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
  • This year, the porous Vikings defense has surrendered a staggering 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
  • In this game, Justin Fields is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.7.
  • Justin Fields profiles as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 19th percentile.
  • The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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