Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-255).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
The Bears have been the 9th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Fields has been among the leading touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a remarkable 1.71 per game while grading out in the 79th percentile.
This year, the porous Vikings defense has surrendered a staggering 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
In this game, Justin Fields is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have the fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.7.
Justin Fields profiles as one of the least on-target QBs in the NFL this year with a 61.9% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 19th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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