Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+200/-278).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -278.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the league against the Detroit Lions defense this year (73.2%).
The Detroit Lions defense has allowed the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league: 1.62 per game this year.
The Detroit Lions cornerbacks project as the worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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