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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (+100/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Jets to be the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect the Jets to run the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.0 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

In this week's game, Justin Fields is predicted by the projections to garner the 3rd-most carries among all QBs with 8.4.

Justin Fields has been a more important option in his team's rushing attack this season (26.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.5%).

With an exceptional tally of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Justin Fields rates as one of the best rushing QBs in the league this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Jets being a huge -7-point underdog this week.

With an atrocious rate of 0.95 yards-after-contact (25th percentile), Justin Fields ranks as one of the weakest rushing QBs in football this year.

Opposing teams have run for the 4th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 84.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.

The Broncos safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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