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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 41.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • At the moment, the 7th-most run-focused team in football (40.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Jets.
  • The leading projections forecast Justin Fields to notch 7.8 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 4th-most among all QBs.
  • While Justin Fields has earned 18.8% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in New York's run game in this week's contest at 28.5%.
  • Justin Fields has picked up 29.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest marks in football among quarterbacks (80th percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets last year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).
  • With a lousy rate of 4.9 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (20th percentile), Justin Fields stands among the worst rushing quarterbacks in the NFL last year.
  • Opposing squads have run for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in football (just 98.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense last year.

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