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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-308).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +258 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +200.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 50.1% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.3% in games he has played).

Justin Fields has run for 0.20 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among QBs (82nd percentile).

The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.

Opposing teams have run for the 7th-least touchdowns in the league (0.60 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.

The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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