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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 173.5 (+102/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 173.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 173.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.

In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Jets profiles as the 8th-best in football last year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency last year, surrendering 8.02 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's CB corps has been awful last year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets last year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).

In this week's contest, Justin Fields is predicted by the projection model to have the 6th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.8.

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