Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 17, 2023

Updated Jan 1, 2024 12:56 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 204.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 189.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 204.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Justin Fields's 191.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a noteable improvement in his throwing prowess over last year's 149.0 figure.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been atrocious this year, profiling as the 3rd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Bears offense to be the 10th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.39 seconds per snap.
This week, Justin Fields is expected by the projection model to total the 3rd-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 26.8.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Atlanta Falcons, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 34.8 per game) this year.
In regards to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year.

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