Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 135.5 (+112/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 137.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 135.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Justin Fields's passing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 64.0%.
Justin Fields has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 7.44 yards-per-target while grading out in the 75th percentile.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 42.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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