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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Completions
Player Prop Week 2

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Justin Fields Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+100/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.

As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the poor Bills defense has surrendered a massive 73.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 4th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Jets offensive blueprint to lean 9.7% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

The model projects Justin Fields to throw 30.8 passes this week, on average: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

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