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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -129 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jets offense to skew 10.6% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • The leading projections forecast the New York Jets as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.
  • This week, Justin Fields is expected by our trusted projection set to total the 2nd-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 8.7.
  • The predictive model expects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's run game in this week's game (28.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (21.1% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Justin Fields in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 123.6 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the New York Jets since the start of last season (just 55.4 per game on average).

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