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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Carries
Player Prop Week 2

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Jets offensive blueprint to lean 9.7% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • The leading projections forecast the Jets as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • In this contest, Justin Fields is predicted by our trusted projection set to garner the 3rd-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 9.5.
  • Our trusted projections expect Justin Fields to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this contest (32.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.8% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Buffalo's LB corps has been atrocious since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in the league. in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

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