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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+500/-570).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +600 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +500.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • Justice Hill has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 8.3% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Justice Hill rates in the 97th percentile when it comes to running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 21.9 mark this year.
  • With a fantastic rate of 0.14 per game through the air (83rd percentile), Justice Hill has been among the leading receiving TD-scorers in the NFL among RBs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 49.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 2nd-most run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (50.4% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Baltimore Ravens.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.
  • The fewest plays in the league have been run by the Ravens this year (just 49.2 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.

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