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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+550/-1000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The projections expect Justice Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the end zone in this week's game (11.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • Justice Hill grades out in the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs this year with a remarkable 0.8% of his offense's air yards accumulated.
  • Justice Hill's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 88th percentile for running backs.
  • With an awful ratio of just 0.00 rushing TDs per game (1st percentile), Justice Hill has been as one of the worst rushing TD-scorers in football this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 53.3% of their downs: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.5% red zone run rate.
  • The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Baltimore Ravens since the start of last season (a lowly 55.0 per game on average).
  • Justice Hill's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 92.7% to 78.4%.
  • Justice Hill grades out in the 1st percentile among running backs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

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