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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+360/-435).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +430 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +360.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
  • Justice Hill has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 12.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • Justice Hill's 16.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for RBs.
  • With an outstanding rate of 0.18 per game through the air (95th percentile), Justice Hill has been among the top receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a running game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Ravens to be the least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 6th-most run-centric team in football near the goal line (46.8% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Baltimore Ravens.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Ravens have run the fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.3 plays per game.

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