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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+570/-1000).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -960 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1000.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Justice Hill slots into the 85th percentile among RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 16.5 figure this year.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) versus running backs this year (86.9%).
  • This year, the shaky Cincinnati Bengals defense has surrendered a monstrous 0.55 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.
  • When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Ravens as the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 5th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • The 2nd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 52.0 per game on average).
  • When it comes to protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year.

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