Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 48.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Justice Hill has run for significantly more adjusted yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
Justice Hill's ground efficiency (4.58 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (81st percentile among running backs).
The Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 4.98 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
The predictive model expects Justice Hill to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game in this week's game (9.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.2% in games he has played).

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