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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-104/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • With an extraordinary 13.3% Target Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Justice Hill has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume in the league.
  • With an excellent 2.2 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Justice Hill ranks among the top pass-catching RBs in the league.
  • The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (91%) vs. running backs this year (91.0%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a massive favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 120.9 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
  • The 3rd-fewest plays in football have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a lowly 50.1 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Dolphins, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 29.0 per game) this year.

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