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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -195.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this week's contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • The projections expect Justice Hill to garner 3.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • Justice Hill has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 15.1% this year, which puts him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
  • Justice Hill grades out as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 49.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projection model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.
  • The fewest plays in the league have been run by the Ravens this year (just 49.2 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Bears defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year.

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