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Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-107).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -107.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Baltimore Ravens will be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.The Ravens are a big 7-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.The Rams defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.The projections expect Justice Hill to earn 4.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the least pass-focused offense in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.4% pass rate.The Baltimore Ravens have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 44.8 plays per game.Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being projected in this game) generally mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.As it relates to air yards, Justice Hill ranks in the paltry 15th percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -5.0 per game.When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
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